Crude Analysis 30-Jul-2016

CMP 41.44
As long as crude resisted by 44.4/46.1$, I expect to see
40.55, 40.04, 39.1, 37.74(.89), 35.8(.89), 35.28(.34), 33.55 positionally.
2674(89), 2623(21), 2586(89), 2534, 2480(89), 2431(34), 2286(89), 2175(55).

For any sell max sl 40.55/46.1$, 23001/3123.

Silver Analysis 30-Jul-2016

CMP: 20.31/47435

As long as 17.85/42440 supports, I expect to see
21.74-22.2, 22.72-23.39, 24.41, 27.08-27.46$
49376-50257, 53230-53961, 55377-56137, 63659
positionally.

FOR ANY BUY MAX SL 17.85/42440.
ALL THE BEST. READ DISCLOSURE BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE DECISION.

THANKS.

Crude Analysis - ONLY CHARTS 29-Jul-2016

Crude Analysis - ONLY CHARTS 29-Jul-2016

NEXT UPDATE: 01-AUG-2016

Gold Analysis 29-Jul-2016

CMP 1335
Sup: 1310
Res: 1376
As long as 1375 resists, I expect to see 1311 again and further 1289/70$.

Crude Analysis 28-Jul-2016

CMP 41.94
Res: 46.1
As long as 46$ resists, I expect to see lower lows and expecting: 41.37, 41.08, 40.23, 39.55, 37.9-37.7, 37.15, 35.26.

Crude Analysis 24-Jul-2016

27-Jul-2016
CMP 42.08$
Further targets: 41.4/41.14/40.29/39.96/38.50/37.73

CMP: 44.23/2964

Support: 43.73/2956
Res: 46.08/3113

As long as crude supported by 43.73/2956, I expect to see 44.90, 45.17, 45.4, 45.53, 45.82 (2992, 3013, 3033, 3051, 3065-75, 3096).

If crude resisted by 46.08/3113, I expect to see 43.73 again and further, I expect 43.2, 42.78, 41.93, 41.41 (2956 again and further 2932, [2906], 2889, 2852, [2820], 2750).

IMPORTANT LEVELS TO BE WATCHED:44.91, 45.17-45.40 / 3035, 3053-3067.

LONG TERM POSITIONAL VIEW OF CRUDE 19-Jul-2016

CMP 45.26
RES: 51.64
SUP: 26.04

I expect current move of crude to last for more time and I expect it to travel thru' triangle. Below chart shows the ideal path for crude as long as resisted by 51.64 and supported by 26.04.

MORE COMPLEX CHART with Gann Grid n Fan:

AS PER TIME CYCLE:
NOTE: I AM NOT MUCH LEARNED ABOUT TIME CYCLES. THE BELOW IS JUST A VIEW, as I CONSIDER THIS AS A BIGGER CORRECTION.
LET US SEE HOW FAR THIS WORKS OUT.

Wave B
July - Aug -> Down move
Aug - Oct -> Up move
Oct -> Feb 2017 -> Down move

Wave C
Feb - Aug -> Up Move

Wave D
Aug/Oct - Feb 2018 -> Down Move



Wave E

Feb -> May -> Up Move

May/Aug - Feb 2019 -> DOWN MOVE

Thanks.

CRUDE ANALYSIS 18-Jul-2016

22-Jul-2016

21-Jul-2016
CMP 45.71$
Res: 46.08
Sup: 44.55

As long as crude resisted by 46.08$, I expect to see 45.71 (already done)/45.49/45.31/ [[45.12/44.98 ]] /44.9/44.7.

Any reversal from the above levels, 1st tgt 46.08 and further [46.16], 46.57, [46.82], 47.23, 47.48, [[ [47.05] - [48.29] ]].

TRADE IDEAS:
1. Sell crude  between 45.65-45.90, SL max 46.08 for downside targets.

2. Buy between 47.21-44.9, SL max 44.5, for upside targets.
3. Sell between 47-48.3, SL max 50$ for min 44.34 and 42.3, 41.1.

NOTE: BUY above 46.08, SELL below 44.34 also valid trade.
BUY's SL 44.34$
SELL SL will be after activation.

READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE DECISION.



20-Jul-2016
CMP 45.54$
Sup: 44.34
Res: 46.9/50
Since, crude was not able to break 44.3$, there is still upside possibility left. Here below the possibilities of upside and down side possibilities.

CMP: 45:48
Res: 46.90, 46.28 / 49.98
Sup:44.4, 45.05

PRIMARY VIEW:

As long as Crude resisted by 46.3$, I expect to see 43.3/42.55/41.1$ positionally.

Trade Idea:
Sell Crude at cmp 45.48 or on rise between 45.70 - 46, Max SL 46.30$ for the above targets.

ALTERNATE VIEW:
http://rajtechnicalanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/07/crude-analysis-16-jul-2016.html

Both views are valid, In either way, I expect to see 43.3$ minimum.

CRUDE ANALYSIS 16-Jul-2016

CMP 45.98
Res: 46.9/49.98
Sup: 45/44.69/44.40

As long as 45$ supports, we can see 47.06$ first. Further 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60.

If crude resisted by 50$ and any reversal from the above levels (i.e., 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60), we can see 44.4$ again. And further, 43.4/42.55/41.1/40.34/38.89/37.82/36.95/35.29.


IMPORTANT LEVEL TO WATCH: 47.65-48.60.

ABOVE 50$, WE CRUDE WILL RESUME IT'S UPTREND AS WAVE 5 AND WE CAN SEE 51.55/55/57+++.

TRADE IDEAS:
1. BUY WITH SL 45$ for tgts: 47.06, 47.65-47.84-48, 48.35-48.60.
2. SELL WITH SL 50$ between 47.65-48.60 for [44.4], 43.4, 42.55, [41.1], 40.34, 38.89, 37.82, 36.95, [35.29].


MCX
CMP 3088 | Res: 3146/3355 | Sup: 2997/3021

As long as 3021 supports, we can see 3147 again, and further, 3170-3180, 3200-3221, 3250-3270.
If resisted by 3355, and any reversal from the above levels, we will see 2997 again and further, 2967, 2888, 2840, 2762, 2653.

TRADE IDEAS:
1. Buy crude with sl 3021 for 3147, 3170-3180, 3200-3221, 3250-3270.
2. Sell crude with sl 3363 between 3200-3270, for 2997, 2967, 2888, 2840, 2762, 2653.

ABOVE 3355, CRUDE WILL RESUME IT'S UPTREND.







READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE DECISION.

CRUDE ANALYSIS 14-JUL-2016

UPDATE 15-Jul-2016 4:55 AM IST
15-Jul-2016
CMP 45.32
Res: 45.78
Sup: 44.99

Break above 45.8$, I expect to see 46.67/46.9/47.1/47.4/47.8
Below 44.9/44.5, I expect to see 43.4/42.55/41.3/40.3/38.9/37.55/35.3

Positional stop loss lies at 50.55$.

Thanks.





UPDATE: 14-Jul-2016
5:43 PM IST

As long as 45.10$ supports, still we can see 45.86-45.89, 46.05-46.11, 46.25, 46.47-46.62, 47.04...


14-Jul-2016
CMP: 45.07
Res: 46.90
Sup: 44.34

Chart on 13-Jul-2016 Morning

Chart on 14-Jul-Morning

 


VIEW FROM HERE
As long as 50$ resists, I still expect to see 43.55/42.40/41.1/40.15$ positionally.

If crude supported by 44.34$, I expect to see 46.9$ again and further 47.55.

As I have already mentioned, we can expect again 47-48$, which will be a good SELL entry for positional target 43.55$ first.

BELOW 44.34$, direct move towards 42.3$.

Previous Analysis:
http://rajtechnicalanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/07/crude-analysis-13-jul-2016.html
http://rajtechnicalanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/07/crude-positional-view-4-jun-2016.html

Crude Analysis 13-Jul-2016

CMP: 46.42
Res: 46.91
Sup: 44.39

As long as 46.91$ resists, we can see 46.31/45.95/45.65/45.35/45.13/44.99/44.67.

Important Levels:
1. 46.15-45.44$
2. 45.36-44.98$

Seller's SL: 46.91
Buyer's SL: 44.39

Strategy:
1. Sell on rise with max sl 46.91$ for the above targets.
2. Buy on dips with max sl 44.39$ for 46.9$ first, further targets will be updated after reversal confirmation.

Previous Posts:
http://rajtechnicalanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/07/crude-analysis-10-jul-2016.html

Thanks.

SILVER ANALYSIS 10-Jul-2016

CMP 20.18
Resistance: 21.13$
Support: 19.19$

As long as 19.19$ supports, I expect to see 21.11 again and further 21.23, 21.69, 22.49.

Crude Analysis 10-Jul-2016

CMP 45.19
Res: 48.3/49.34/47/50.51/51.64
Sup: 45.82 (broken)

As long as 51.64$ resists, I expect to see 42.42-41.73, 41.11-40.25 positionally.

Advanced view:
Sell on rise between 48.1-51$, SL 51.65$ for 42.42, 41.11$.

As of now sl 45.95 for small trades tgt 43.9$. If this taken out, need to wait for market action.

Previous posts:
http://rajtechnicalanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/07/crude-positional-view-4-jun-2016.html
http://rajtechnicalanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/07/crude-historical-seasonal-analysis-06.html


READ DISCLOSURE BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE DECISION.

CRUDE HISTORICAL (SEASONAL) ANALYSIS 06-Jul-2016

HISTORICAL/SEASONAL ANALYSIS OF CRUDE

BUY

 SELL

ANALYSIS

BUY		SELL		BUY				SELL
Feb-2016		May-2015		Jan	6		Jan	1
Mar-2015		Oct-2015		Feb	10		Feb	0
Apr-2013		Jun-2014		Mar	7		Mar	3
Jun-2012		Aug-2013		Apr	5		Apr	4
Oct-2011		Sep-2012		May	2		May	6
May-2010		May-2011		Jun	1		Jun	3
Feb-2009		May-2010		Jul	1		Jul	1
Jan-2007		Jul-2008		Aug	0		Aug	7
Feb-2006		Aug-2006		Sep	0		Sep	4
Jan-2005		Dec-2006		Oct	3		Oct	10
Feb-2004		Apr-2005		Nov	1		Nov	2
May-2003		Sep-2005		Dec	4		Dec	1
Jan-2002		Oct-2004
Nov-2001		Aug-2003
Jan-2000		Sep-2002
Apr-2000		Jan-2001
Feb-1999		Sep-2001
Dec-1998		Mar-2000
Feb-1996		Oct-2000
Jan-1995		Mar-1998
Oct-1995		Oct-1998
Apr-1994		Oct-1997
Dec-1994		Apr-1996
Feb-1992		May-1995
Mar-1991		Aug-1994
Jul-1990		Mar-1993
Feb-1989		Oct-1993
Mar-1988		Jun-1992
Oct-1988		Oct-1992
Feb-1987		Nov-1991
Dec-1987		Oct-1990
Apr-1986		Apr-1989
Feb-1985		Apr-1988
Jan-1984		Aug-1987
Mar-1984		Oct-1987
Mar-1983		Aug-1987
Dec-1983		Nov-1985
Apr-1982		May-1984
Mar-1983		Oct-1984
Mar-1982		Aug-1983
		May-1982
		Jun-1981

CRUDE POSITIONAL VIEW 4-Jun-2016

06-Jul-2016
06-Jul-2016
CMP 46.24
Res: 51.65
Sup: 45.82/35.23/26

Bearish Scenario:
If breaks 45.82, we can see 45.32, 44.69 and further 42.4, 41.1...

Bullish scenario:
If supported by 35.23, and any reversal from 41.5-40, 39.1, we can see 51.64 first, further break,

If crude holds between 26.1-51.65,
Ideal path for triangle may be 26.1 -> 51.6, 51.6 -> 31, 31 -> 48, 48 -> 34, 34 -> 45, 45 -> 21.


As per my view, we are in wave 4 from higher tf, so I expect to see a bigger triangle, which may last for several months before big fall towards 21$.

ANOTHER SCENARIO FOR CONSIDERATION:

CMP 46.26
I could see divergences in Crude Daily TF.
If crude breaks, 45.82$, I expect to see more fall towards 42/38/35$.
Tgts: 42.6-41.86-41.11, 38.83-38.06, 35.82-35.3-33.57.

04-Jul-2016
NYMEX:
CMP: 48.98
Res: 50/50.55/51.65
Support: 45.6
As long as the above levels resists, I expect to see 45.8$ again.
And further 43.1, 41.9, 39.9, 38.9, 35.75, 33.6$.

MCX:
Res: 3356(55)/3423(21)/3446(55)
Support: 3113
As long as the above levels resists, I expect to see 3117 again.
Adn further 2895/2815/2658/2624/2566/2432/2286.

Trade Idea:
Sell with max sl 3360/3460 for the above targets.
SAFE SELL below 3113. SL will be updated after trigger.

READ DISCLOSURE BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE DECISION.
Thanks. All the best.